Rangers U19 3–0 Septemvri Sofia U19: Result & Stats

Rangers U19

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Septemvri Sofia U19

C. McKinnon 88'

A. Weston 65'

A. Lowry 55'

12/7/2021

UEFA Youth League · 2nd RoundThe C&G Systems Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Rangers U1952%

×Draw23%

Septemvri Sofia U1925%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rangers U19Expected goals in this matchSeptemvri Sofia U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.22

Rangers U19

1.83

Septemvri Sofia U19

1.22

Rangers U19 creates 50% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 3 away

2.00

creates per match

0.33

2.11

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Rangers U19

2.00

Septemvri Sofia U19

0.33

allows per match

Rangers U19

2.11

Septemvri Sofia U19

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rangers U19+0.00on par

Septemvri Sofia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rangers U19 ↓

Septemvri Sofia U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Rangers U19 or draw

75%

Rangers U19 or Septemvri Sofia U19

77%

Draw or Septemvri Sofia U19

48%

Winning margin

Rangers U19 wins by 2+

29%

Septemvri Sofia U19 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Rangers U19 1+ goals

84%

Rangers U19 2+ goals

54%

Rangers U19 3+ goals

28%

Septemvri Sofia U19 1+ goals

70%

Septemvri Sofia U19 2+ goals

34%

Septemvri Sofia U19 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Rangers U19 (draw refunded)

67%

Septemvri Sofia U19 (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rangers U19 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

Septemvri Sofia U19 away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rangers U19 attack 2.00 + Septemvri Sofia U19 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

Septemvri Sofia U19 attack 0.33 + Rangers U19 defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Rangers U19 scores more

52%

level

23%

Septemvri Sofia U19 scores more

25%

Rangers U19 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Rangers U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

R. McCausland

46'

L. Mackinnon← L. King

46'

M. Todorov← B. Marinov

53'

A. Lyall← R. McCausland

55'

A. Lowry

65'

A. Weston

66'

G. Shopov← K. Kolev

67'

C. McKee← R. Ure

70'

R. Wilson← A. Lowry

70'

J. Lindsay← A. Weston

76'

N. Zhelyazkov← B. Piralkov

80'

K. Valchinov← Z. Atanasov

88'

C. McKinnon

Rangers

Septemvri

12

6

19

3

2

▼

Piralkov

7

Aleksandr

18

Stoichkov

8

▼

Kolev

5

▼

Atanasov

10

Stoychev

13

▼

Marinov

1

Hogarth

5

McClellan

4

▼

King

2

Devine

6

Miller

11

▼

McCauslan

8

⚽

McKinnon

10

⚽

▼

Lowry

3

Fraser

9

▼

Ure

7

⚽

▼

Weston

Manager: D. McCallum

46'▲L. Mackinnon←▼L. King

53'▲A. Lyall←▼R. McCausland

67'▲C. McKee←▼R. Ure

70'▲R. Wilson←▼A. Lowry

70'▲J. Lindsay←▼A. Weston

Rangers U19 substitutes

12Mackinnon16Lyall17McKee18Wilson15Lindsay14Allan21Mcconnell

Manager: I. Geshev

46'▲M. Todorov←▼B. Marinov

66'▲G. Shopov←▼K. Kolev

76'▲N. Zhelyazkov←▼B. Piralkov

80'▲K. Valchinov←▼Z. Atanasov

Septemvri Sofia U19 substitutes

9Todorov17Shopov23Zhelyazkov11Valchinov1Ivanov25Tsvetanov26Ivanov

Match Recap: Rangers U19 vs Septemvri Sofia U19

Rangers U19 beat Septemvri Sofia U19 3-0 in UEFA Youth League on December 7, 2021.

Goals: A. Lowry (55'), A. Weston (65'), C. McKinnon (88').

The match was played at The C&G Systems Stadium in Dumbarton.

Rangers U19 vs Septemvri Sofia U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Rangers U19 vs Septemvri Sofia U19