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Septemvri Sofia II vs Septemvri Simitli — Third League - Southwest 2018

Septemvri Sofia II
Septemvri Sofia II
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Septemvri Simitli
Septemvri Simitli
4/30/2025Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 31Stadion 57-mo uchilishte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Septemvri Sofia II51%
×Draw25%
Septemvri Simitli24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Septemvri Sofia II
1.59
Septemvri Simitli
1.02

Septemvri Sofia II creates 56% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 94 away

creates per match

Septemvri Sofia II
1.70
Septemvri Simitli
0.96

allows per match

Septemvri Sofia II
1.09
Septemvri Simitli
1.48

finishing

Septemvri Sofia II+0.00on par
Septemvri Simitli+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Septemvri Sofia II ↓

Septemvri Simitli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Septemvri Sofia II or draw
76%
Septemvri Sofia II or Septemvri Simitli
75%
Draw or Septemvri Simitli
49%

Winning margin

Septemvri Sofia II wins by 2+
26%
Septemvri Simitli wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Septemvri Sofia II 1+ goals
80%
Septemvri Sofia II 2+ goals
47%
Septemvri Sofia II 3+ goals
21%
Septemvri Simitli 1+ goals
64%
Septemvri Simitli 2+ goals
27%
Septemvri Simitli 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Septemvri Sofia II (draw refunded)
68%
Septemvri Simitli (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Septemvri Sofia II at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.09 · 90 matches

Septemvri Simitli away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.48 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Septemvri Sofia II attack 1.70 + Septemvri Simitli defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.59

Septemvri Simitli attack 0.96 + Septemvri Sofia II defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Septemvri Sofia II scores more
51%
level
25%
Septemvri Simitli scores more
24%

Septemvri Sofia II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Septemvri Sofia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Septemvri Sofia II vs Septemvri Simitli

Septemvri Simitli beat Septemvri Sofia II 2-0 in Third League - Southwest on April 30, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion 57-mo uchilishte in Sofia.