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Septemvri Simitli vs Septemvri Sofia II — Third League - Southwest 2018

Septemvri Simitli
Septemvri Simitli
FT
3 – 0
Septemvri Sofia II
Septemvri Sofia II
10/6/2024Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 12Stadion Struma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Septemvri Simitli53%
×Draw24%
Septemvri Sofia II23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Septemvri Simitli
1.69
Septemvri Sofia II
1.03

Septemvri Simitli creates 64% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 88 away

creates per match

Septemvri Simitli
1.55
Septemvri Sofia II
1.19

allows per match

Septemvri Simitli
0.88
Septemvri Sofia II
1.83

finishing

Septemvri Simitli+0.00on par
Septemvri Sofia II+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Septemvri Simitli ↓

Septemvri Sofia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Septemvri Simitli or draw
77%
Septemvri Simitli or Septemvri Sofia II
76%
Draw or Septemvri Sofia II
47%

Winning margin

Septemvri Simitli wins by 2+
29%
Septemvri Sofia II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Septemvri Simitli 1+ goals
82%
Septemvri Simitli 2+ goals
50%
Septemvri Simitli 3+ goals
24%
Septemvri Sofia II 1+ goals
64%
Septemvri Sofia II 2+ goals
28%
Septemvri Sofia II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Septemvri Simitli (draw refunded)
70%
Septemvri Sofia II (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Septemvri Simitli at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.88 · 93 matches

Septemvri Sofia II away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.83 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Septemvri Simitli attack 1.55 + Septemvri Sofia II defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.69

Septemvri Sofia II attack 1.19 + Septemvri Simitli defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Septemvri Simitli scores more
53%
level
24%
Septemvri Sofia II scores more
23%

Septemvri Simitli at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Septemvri Simitli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Septemvri Simitli vs Septemvri Sofia II

Septemvri Simitli beat Septemvri Sofia II 3-0 in Third League - Southwest on October 6, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Struma in Simitli.