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Septemvri Sofia II vs Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi — Third League - Southwest 2018

Septemvri Sofia II
Septemvri Sofia II
FT
3 – 0
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
6/3/2023Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - Relegation Round - 12Stadion German

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Septemvri Sofia II59%
×Draw21%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Septemvri Sofia II
2.04
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
1.09

Septemvri Sofia II creates 87% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 78 away

creates per match

Septemvri Sofia II
1.70
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
1.09

allows per match

Septemvri Sofia II
1.09
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
2.37

finishing

Septemvri Sofia II+0.00on par
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Septemvri Sofia II ↓

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Septemvri Sofia II or draw
80%
Septemvri Sofia II or Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
79%
Draw or Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
41%

Winning margin

Septemvri Sofia II wins by 2+
36%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Septemvri Sofia II 1+ goals
87%
Septemvri Sofia II 2+ goals
60%
Septemvri Sofia II 3+ goals
33%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 1+ goals
66%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 2+ goals
30%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Septemvri Sofia II (draw refunded)
75%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Septemvri Sofia II at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.09 · 90 matches

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.37 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Septemvri Sofia II attack 1.70 + Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.04

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi attack 1.09 + Septemvri Sofia II defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Septemvri Sofia II scores more
59%
level
21%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi scores more
20%

Septemvri Sofia II at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Septemvri Sofia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Septemvri Sofia II 3–0 Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi

Septemvri Sofia II beat Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 3-0 in Third League - Southwest on June 3, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion German in German.