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Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi vs Septemvri Sofia II — Third League - Southwest 2018

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
FT
2 – 1
Septemvri Sofia II
Septemvri Sofia II
3/26/2022Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 26Stadion Dobroslavtsi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi45%
×Draw25%
Septemvri Sofia II30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
1.59
Septemvri Sofia II
1.25

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi creates 27% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 88 away

creates per match

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
1.35
Septemvri Sofia II
1.19

allows per match

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
1.32
Septemvri Sofia II
1.83

finishing

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi+0.00on par
Septemvri Sofia II+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi ↓

Septemvri Sofia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi or draw
70%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi or Septemvri Sofia II
75%
Draw or Septemvri Sofia II
55%

Winning margin

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi wins by 2+
23%
Septemvri Sofia II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 1+ goals
80%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 2+ goals
47%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 3+ goals
21%
Septemvri Sofia II 1+ goals
71%
Septemvri Sofia II 2+ goals
36%
Septemvri Sofia II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi (draw refunded)
60%
Septemvri Sofia II (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.32 · 78 matches

Septemvri Sofia II away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.83 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi attack 1.35 + Septemvri Sofia II defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.59

Septemvri Sofia II attack 1.19 + Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi scores more
45%
level
25%
Septemvri Sofia II scores more
30%

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 2–1 Septemvri Sofia II

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi beat Septemvri Sofia II 2-1 in Third League - Southwest on March 26, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Dobroslavtsi in Dobroslavtsi.