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Septemvri Sofia II vs Kyustendil — Third League - Southwest 2018

Septemvri Sofia II
Septemvri Sofia II
FT
1 – 2
Kyustendil
Kyustendil
8/14/2024Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 3Stadion German

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Septemvri Sofia II41%
×Draw25%
Kyustendil34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Septemvri Sofia II
1.47
Kyustendil
1.33

Septemvri Sofia II creates 11% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 114 away

creates per match

Septemvri Sofia II
1.70
Kyustendil
1.56

allows per match

Septemvri Sofia II
1.09
Kyustendil
1.24

finishing

Septemvri Sofia II+0.00on par
Kyustendil+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Septemvri Sofia II ↓

Kyustendil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Septemvri Sofia II or draw
66%
Septemvri Sofia II or Kyustendil
75%
Draw or Kyustendil
59%

Winning margin

Septemvri Sofia II wins by 2+
19%
Kyustendil wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Septemvri Sofia II 1+ goals
77%
Septemvri Sofia II 2+ goals
43%
Septemvri Sofia II 3+ goals
18%
Kyustendil 1+ goals
74%
Kyustendil 2+ goals
38%
Kyustendil 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Septemvri Sofia II (draw refunded)
54%
Kyustendil (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Septemvri Sofia II at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.09 · 90 matches

Kyustendil away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.24 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Septemvri Sofia II attack 1.70 + Kyustendil defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.47

Kyustendil attack 1.56 + Septemvri Sofia II defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Septemvri Sofia II scores more
41%
level
25%
Kyustendil scores more
34%

Septemvri Sofia II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Septemvri Sofia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Septemvri Sofia II 1–2 Kyustendil

Kyustendil beat Septemvri Sofia II 2-1 in Third League - Southwest on August 14, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion German in German.