Kyustendil 0–0 Septemvri Sofia II: Result & Stats

Kyustendil

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Septemvri Sofia II

5/2/2026

Third League - Southwest · Southwest - 30

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Kyustendil60%

×Draw22%

Septemvri Sofia II19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KyustendilExpected goals in this matchSeptemvri Sofia II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.00

Kyustendil

1.96

Septemvri Sofia II

1.00

Kyustendil creates 96% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 88 away

2.09

creates per match

1.19

0.81

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Kyustendil

2.09

Septemvri Sofia II

1.19

allows per match

Kyustendil

0.81

Septemvri Sofia II

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kyustendil+0.00on par

Septemvri Sofia II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kyustendil ↓

Septemvri Sofia II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Kyustendil or draw

81%

Kyustendil or Septemvri Sofia II

78%

Draw or Septemvri Sofia II

40%

Winning margin

Kyustendil wins by 2+

36%

Septemvri Sofia II wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Kyustendil 1+ goals

86%

Kyustendil 2+ goals

58%

Kyustendil 3+ goals

31%

Septemvri Sofia II 1+ goals

63%

Septemvri Sofia II 2+ goals

26%

Septemvri Sofia II 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Kyustendil (draw refunded)

76%

Septemvri Sofia II (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kyustendil at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.81 · 112 matches

Septemvri Sofia II away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.83 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kyustendil attack 2.09 + Septemvri Sofia II defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.96

Septemvri Sofia II attack 1.19 + Kyustendil defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Kyustendil scores more

60%

level

22%

Septemvri Sofia II scores more

19%

Kyustendil at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Kyustendil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff