Septemvri Sofia II 0–0 Hebar II: Result & Stats

Septemvri Sofia II

FT

0 – 0

Hebar II

4/6/2024

Third League - Southwest · Southwest - 28Stadion German

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Septemvri Sofia II57%

×Draw24%

Hebar II18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Septemvri Sofia IIExpected goals in this matchHebar II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

0.82

Septemvri Sofia II

1.66

Hebar II

0.82

Septemvri Sofia II creates 102% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 38 away

1.70

creates per match

0.55

1.09

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Septemvri Sofia II

1.70

Hebar II

0.55

allows per match

Septemvri Sofia II

1.09

Hebar II

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Septemvri Sofia II+0.00on par

Hebar II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Septemvri Sofia II ↓

Hebar II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Septemvri Sofia II or draw

82%

Septemvri Sofia II or Hebar II

76%

Draw or Hebar II

43%

Winning margin

Septemvri Sofia II wins by 2+

31%

Hebar II wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Septemvri Sofia II 1+ goals

81%

Septemvri Sofia II 2+ goals

49%

Septemvri Sofia II 3+ goals

23%

Hebar II 1+ goals

56%

Hebar II 2+ goals

20%

Hebar II 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Septemvri Sofia II (draw refunded)

76%

Hebar II (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Septemvri Sofia II at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.09 · 90 matches

Hebar II away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.61 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Septemvri Sofia II attack 1.70 + Hebar II defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.66

Hebar II attack 0.55 + Septemvri Sofia II defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Septemvri Sofia II scores more

57%

level

24%

Hebar II scores more

18%

Septemvri Sofia II at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Septemvri Sofia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff