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Hebar II vs Septemvri Sofia II — Third League - Southwest 2018

Hebar II
Hebar II
FT
1 – 0
Septemvri Sofia II
Septemvri Sofia II
9/16/2023Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 9Stadion Saraya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Hebar II47%
×Draw24%
Septemvri Sofia II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hebar II
1.67
Septemvri Sofia II
1.28

Hebar II creates 30% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 88 away

creates per match

Hebar II
1.51
Septemvri Sofia II
1.19

allows per match

Hebar II
1.38
Septemvri Sofia II
1.83

finishing

Hebar II+0.00on par
Septemvri Sofia II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hebar II ↓

Septemvri Sofia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Hebar II or draw
71%
Hebar II or Septemvri Sofia II
76%
Draw or Septemvri Sofia II
53%

Winning margin

Hebar II wins by 2+
24%
Septemvri Sofia II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Hebar II 1+ goals
81%
Hebar II 2+ goals
50%
Hebar II 3+ goals
23%
Septemvri Sofia II 1+ goals
72%
Septemvri Sofia II 2+ goals
37%
Septemvri Sofia II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Hebar II (draw refunded)
61%
Septemvri Sofia II (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hebar II at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.38 · 37 matches

Septemvri Sofia II away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.83 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hebar II attack 1.51 + Septemvri Sofia II defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.67

Septemvri Sofia II attack 1.19 + Hebar II defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Hebar II scores more
47%
level
24%
Septemvri Sofia II scores more
29%

Hebar II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Hebar II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hebar II 1 – 0 Septemvri Sofia II

Hebar II beat Septemvri Sofia II 1-0 in Third League - Southwest on September 16, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Saraya in Saraya.