Septemvri Sofia II 5–1 Granit Vladaya

Septemvri Sofia II

FT

5 – 1

Granit Vladaya

8/3/2024

Third League - Southwest · Southwest - 1Stadion German

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Septemvri Sofia II66%

×Draw19%

Granit Vladaya15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Septemvri Sofia IIExpected goals in this matchGranit Vladaya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

0.92

Septemvri Sofia II

2.17

Granit Vladaya

0.92

Septemvri Sofia II creates 136% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 70 away

1.70

creates per match

0.74

1.09

allows per match

2.63

creates per match

Septemvri Sofia II

1.70

Granit Vladaya

0.74

allows per match

Septemvri Sofia II

1.09

Granit Vladaya

2.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Septemvri Sofia II+0.00on par

Granit Vladaya+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Septemvri Sofia II ↓

Granit Vladaya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Septemvri Sofia II or draw

85%

Septemvri Sofia II or Granit Vladaya

81%

Draw or Granit Vladaya

34%

Winning margin

Septemvri Sofia II wins by 2+

42%

Granit Vladaya wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Septemvri Sofia II 1+ goals

89%

Septemvri Sofia II 2+ goals

64%

Septemvri Sofia II 3+ goals

36%

Granit Vladaya 1+ goals

60%

Granit Vladaya 2+ goals

23%

Granit Vladaya 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Septemvri Sofia II (draw refunded)

82%

Granit Vladaya (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Septemvri Sofia II at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.09 · 90 matches

Granit Vladaya away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.63 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Septemvri Sofia II attack 1.70 + Granit Vladaya defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 2.17

Granit Vladaya attack 0.74 + Septemvri Sofia II defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Septemvri Sofia II scores more

66%

level

19%

Granit Vladaya scores more

15%

Septemvri Sofia II at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Septemvri Sofia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Septemvri Sofia II vs Granit Vladaya

Septemvri Sofia II beat Granit Vladaya 5-1 in Third League - Southwest on August 3, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion German in German.

Septemvri Sofia II vs Granit Vladaya — Third League - Southwest 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Septemvri Sofia II vs Granit Vladaya