Granit Vladaya 1–1 Septemvri Sofia II

Granit Vladaya

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Septemvri Sofia II

3/5/2025

Third League - Southwest · Southwest - 20Stadion Vladaia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Granit Vladaya40%

×Draw25%

Septemvri Sofia II36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Granit VladayaExpected goals in this matchSeptemvri Sofia II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.39

Granit Vladaya

1.48

Septemvri Sofia II

1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 70 home / 88 away

1.14

creates per match

1.19

1.59

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Granit Vladaya

1.14

Septemvri Sofia II

1.19

allows per match

Granit Vladaya

1.59

Septemvri Sofia II

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Granit Vladaya+0.00on par

Septemvri Sofia II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Granit Vladaya ↓

Septemvri Sofia II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Granit Vladaya or draw

64%

Granit Vladaya or Septemvri Sofia II

75%

Draw or Septemvri Sofia II

60%

Winning margin

Granit Vladaya wins by 2+

19%

Septemvri Sofia II wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Granit Vladaya 1+ goals

77%

Granit Vladaya 2+ goals

43%

Granit Vladaya 3+ goals

19%

Septemvri Sofia II 1+ goals

75%

Septemvri Sofia II 2+ goals

40%

Septemvri Sofia II 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Granit Vladaya (draw refunded)

53%

Septemvri Sofia II (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Granit Vladaya at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.59 · 70 matches

Septemvri Sofia II away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.83 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Granit Vladaya attack 1.14 + Septemvri Sofia II defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.48

Septemvri Sofia II attack 1.19 + Granit Vladaya defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Granit Vladaya scores more

40%

level

25%

Septemvri Sofia II scores more

36%

Granit Vladaya at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Granit Vladaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff