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Septemvri Simitli vs Pirin Blagoevgrad II — Third League - Southwest 2018

Septemvri Simitli
Septemvri Simitli
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Pirin Blagoevgrad II
Pirin Blagoevgrad II
9/21/2024Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 10Stadion Struma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Septemvri Simitli62%
×Draw23%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Septemvri Simitli
1.80
Pirin Blagoevgrad II
0.75

Septemvri Simitli creates 140% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 37 away

creates per match

Septemvri Simitli
1.55
Pirin Blagoevgrad II
0.62

allows per match

Septemvri Simitli
0.88
Pirin Blagoevgrad II
2.05

finishing

Septemvri Simitli+0.00on par
Pirin Blagoevgrad II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Septemvri Simitli ↓

Pirin Blagoevgrad II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Septemvri Simitli or draw
85%
Septemvri Simitli or Pirin Blagoevgrad II
77%
Draw or Pirin Blagoevgrad II
38%

Winning margin

Septemvri Simitli wins by 2+
36%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Septemvri Simitli 1+ goals
83%
Septemvri Simitli 2+ goals
54%
Septemvri Simitli 3+ goals
27%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II 1+ goals
53%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II 2+ goals
17%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Septemvri Simitli (draw refunded)
80%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Septemvri Simitli at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.88 · 93 matches

Pirin Blagoevgrad II away — creates 0.62, concedes 2.05 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Septemvri Simitli attack 1.55 + Pirin Blagoevgrad II defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.80

Pirin Blagoevgrad II attack 0.62 + Septemvri Simitli defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Septemvri Simitli scores more
62%
level
23%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II scores more
15%

Septemvri Simitli at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Septemvri Simitli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Septemvri Simitli 1–3 Pirin Blagoevgrad II

Pirin Blagoevgrad II beat Septemvri Simitli 3-1 in Third League - Southwest on September 21, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Struma in Simitli.