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Pirin Blagoevgrad II vs Septemvri Simitli — Third League - Southwest 2018

Pirin Blagoevgrad II
Pirin Blagoevgrad II
FT
2 – 0
Septemvri Simitli
Septemvri Simitli
4/13/2025Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 29Stadion selo Riltsi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Pirin Blagoevgrad II32%
×Draw26%
Septemvri Simitli42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pirin Blagoevgrad II
1.19
Septemvri Simitli
1.42

Septemvri Simitli creates 19% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 94 away

creates per match

Pirin Blagoevgrad II
0.89
Septemvri Simitli
0.96

allows per match

Pirin Blagoevgrad II
1.89
Septemvri Simitli
1.48

finishing

Pirin Blagoevgrad II+0.00on par
Septemvri Simitli+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pirin Blagoevgrad II ↓

Septemvri Simitli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Pirin Blagoevgrad II or draw
58%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II or Septemvri Simitli
74%
Draw or Septemvri Simitli
68%

Winning margin

Pirin Blagoevgrad II wins by 2+
13%
Septemvri Simitli wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Pirin Blagoevgrad II 1+ goals
70%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II 2+ goals
33%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II 3+ goals
12%
Septemvri Simitli 1+ goals
76%
Septemvri Simitli 2+ goals
41%
Septemvri Simitli 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Pirin Blagoevgrad II (draw refunded)
43%
Septemvri Simitli (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pirin Blagoevgrad II at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.89 · 37 matches

Septemvri Simitli away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.48 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pirin Blagoevgrad II attack 0.89 + Septemvri Simitli defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.19

Septemvri Simitli attack 0.96 + Pirin Blagoevgrad II defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Pirin Blagoevgrad II scores more
32%
level
26%
Septemvri Simitli scores more
42%

Septemvri Simitli at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Septemvri Simitli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Pirin Blagoevgrad II 2–0 Septemvri Simitli

Pirin Blagoevgrad II beat Septemvri Simitli 2-0 in Third League - Southwest on April 13, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion selo Riltsi in Riltsi.