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Septemvri Simitli vs Perun Kresna — Third League - Southwest 2018

Septemvri Simitli
Septemvri Simitli
CANC
00:00
Perun Kresna
Perun Kresna
3/28/2020Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 24

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Septemvri Simitli68%
×Draw20%
Perun Kresna12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Septemvri Simitli
2.06
Perun Kresna
0.73

Septemvri Simitli creates 182% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 26 away

creates per match

Septemvri Simitli
1.55
Perun Kresna
0.58

allows per match

Septemvri Simitli
0.88
Perun Kresna
2.58

finishing

Septemvri Simitli+0.00on par
Perun Kresna+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Septemvri Simitli ↓

Perun Kresna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Septemvri Simitli or draw
88%
Septemvri Simitli or Perun Kresna
80%
Draw or Perun Kresna
32%

Winning margin

Septemvri Simitli wins by 2+
43%
Perun Kresna wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Septemvri Simitli 1+ goals
87%
Septemvri Simitli 2+ goals
61%
Septemvri Simitli 3+ goals
34%
Perun Kresna 1+ goals
52%
Perun Kresna 2+ goals
17%
Perun Kresna 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Septemvri Simitli (draw refunded)
85%
Perun Kresna (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Septemvri Simitli at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.88 · 93 matches

Perun Kresna away — creates 0.58, concedes 2.58 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Septemvri Simitli attack 1.55 + Perun Kresna defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.06

Perun Kresna attack 0.58 + Septemvri Simitli defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Septemvri Simitli scores more
68%
level
20%
Perun Kresna scores more
12%

Septemvri Simitli at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Septemvri Simitli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Septemvri Simitli face Perun Kresna (Third League - Southwest)

Third League - Southwest returns with Septemvri Simitli hosting Perun Kresna. Match starts March 28, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.