Perun Kresna 1–3 Septemvri Simitli: Result & Stats

Perun Kresna

FT

1 – 3

Septemvri Simitli

9/14/2019

Third League - Southwest · South-West - 7Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Perun Kresna29%

×Draw26%

Septemvri Simitli45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Perun KresnaExpected goals in this matchSeptemvri Simitli

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.44

Perun Kresna

1.10

Septemvri Simitli

1.44

Septemvri Simitli creates 31% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 94 away

0.73

creates per match

0.96

1.92

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Perun Kresna

0.73

Septemvri Simitli

0.96

allows per match

Perun Kresna

1.92

Septemvri Simitli

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Perun Kresna+0.00on par

Septemvri Simitli+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Perun Kresna ↓

Septemvri Simitli →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Perun Kresna or draw

55%

Perun Kresna or Septemvri Simitli

74%

Draw or Septemvri Simitli

71%

Winning margin

Perun Kresna wins by 2+

11%

Septemvri Simitli wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Perun Kresna 1+ goals

67%

Perun Kresna 2+ goals

30%

Perun Kresna 3+ goals

10%

Septemvri Simitli 1+ goals

76%

Septemvri Simitli 2+ goals

42%

Septemvri Simitli 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Perun Kresna (draw refunded)

39%

Septemvri Simitli (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Perun Kresna at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.92 · 26 matches

Septemvri Simitli away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.48 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Perun Kresna attack 0.73 + Septemvri Simitli defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.10

Septemvri Simitli attack 0.96 + Perun Kresna defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Perun Kresna scores more

29%

level

26%

Septemvri Simitli scores more

45%

Septemvri Simitli at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Septemvri Simitli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff