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Septemvri Simitli vs Levski Lom — Second League 2018

Septemvri Simitli
Septemvri Simitli
CANC
00:00
Levski Lom
Levski Lom
5/7/2022Second LeagueSecond League · Round 36Stadion Struma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Septemvri Simitli60%
×Draw22%
Levski Lom17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Septemvri Simitli
1.84
Levski Lom
0.86

Septemvri Simitli creates 114% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 13 away

creates per match

Septemvri Simitli
1.53
Levski Lom
0.31

allows per match

Septemvri Simitli
1.41
Levski Lom
2.15

finishing

Septemvri Simitli+0.00on par
Levski Lom+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Septemvri Simitli ↓

Levski Lom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Septemvri Simitli or draw
83%
Septemvri Simitli or Levski Lom
78%
Draw or Levski Lom
40%

Winning margin

Septemvri Simitli wins by 2+
35%
Levski Lom wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Septemvri Simitli 1+ goals
84%
Septemvri Simitli 2+ goals
55%
Septemvri Simitli 3+ goals
28%
Levski Lom 1+ goals
58%
Levski Lom 2+ goals
21%
Levski Lom 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Septemvri Simitli (draw refunded)
78%
Levski Lom (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Septemvri Simitli at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.41 · 32 matches

Levski Lom away — creates 0.31, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Septemvri Simitli attack 1.53 + Levski Lom defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.84

Levski Lom attack 0.31 + Septemvri Simitli defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Septemvri Simitli scores more
60%
level
22%
Levski Lom scores more
17%

Septemvri Simitli at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Septemvri Simitli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Septemvri Simitli host Levski Lom

May 7, 2022: Septemvri Simitli take on Levski Lom in Second League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Septemvri Simitli host Levski Lom at Stadion Struma.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.