Levski Lom 1–1 Septemvri Simitli: Result & Stats

Levski Lom

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Septemvri Simitli

11/7/2021

Second League · Round 17Gradski Stadion Lom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Levski Lom45%

×Draw28%

Septemvri Simitli27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Levski LomExpected goals in this matchSeptemvri Simitli

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.99

Levski Lom

1.35

Septemvri Simitli

0.99

Levski Lom creates 36% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 34 away

0.77

creates per match

0.76

1.23

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Levski Lom

0.77

Septemvri Simitli

0.76

allows per match

Levski Lom

1.23

Septemvri Simitli

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Levski Lom+0.00on par

Septemvri Simitli+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Lom ↓

Septemvri Simitli →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Levski Lom or draw

73%

Levski Lom or Septemvri Simitli

72%

Draw or Septemvri Simitli

55%

Winning margin

Levski Lom wins by 2+

21%

Septemvri Simitli wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Levski Lom 1+ goals

74%

Levski Lom 2+ goals

39%

Levski Lom 3+ goals

15%

Septemvri Simitli 1+ goals

63%

Septemvri Simitli 2+ goals

26%

Septemvri Simitli 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Levski Lom (draw refunded)

62%

Septemvri Simitli (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Lom at home — creates 0.77, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

Septemvri Simitli away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.94 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Lom attack 0.77 + Septemvri Simitli defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.35

Septemvri Simitli attack 0.76 + Levski Lom defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Levski Lom scores more

45%

level

28%

Septemvri Simitli scores more

27%

Levski Lom at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Levski Lom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff