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Septemvri Simitli vs Kyustendil — Third League - Southwest 2018

Septemvri Simitli
Septemvri Simitli
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Kyustendil
Kyustendil
6/4/2025Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 38Stadion Struma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Septemvri Simitli41%
×Draw26%
Kyustendil33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Septemvri Simitli
1.40
Kyustendil
1.22

Septemvri Simitli creates 15% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 114 away

creates per match

Septemvri Simitli
1.55
Kyustendil
1.56

allows per match

Septemvri Simitli
0.88
Kyustendil
1.24

finishing

Septemvri Simitli+0.00on par
Kyustendil+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Septemvri Simitli ↓

Kyustendil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Septemvri Simitli or draw
67%
Septemvri Simitli or Kyustendil
74%
Draw or Kyustendil
59%

Winning margin

Septemvri Simitli wins by 2+
19%
Kyustendil wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Septemvri Simitli 1+ goals
75%
Septemvri Simitli 2+ goals
41%
Septemvri Simitli 3+ goals
17%
Kyustendil 1+ goals
70%
Kyustendil 2+ goals
34%
Kyustendil 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Septemvri Simitli (draw refunded)
56%
Kyustendil (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Septemvri Simitli at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.88 · 93 matches

Kyustendil away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.24 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Septemvri Simitli attack 1.55 + Kyustendil defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.40

Kyustendil attack 1.56 + Septemvri Simitli defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Septemvri Simitli scores more
41%
level
26%
Kyustendil scores more
33%

Septemvri Simitli at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Septemvri Simitli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Septemvri Simitli vs Kyustendil

Septemvri Simitli beat Kyustendil 3-1 in Third League - Southwest on June 4, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Struma in Simitli.