Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kyustendil vs Septemvri Simitli — Third League - Southwest 2018

Kyustendil
Kyustendil
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Septemvri Simitli
Septemvri Simitli
11/15/2025Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 17Stadion Osogovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Kyustendil58%
×Draw23%
Septemvri Simitli19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kyustendil
1.78
Septemvri Simitli
0.89

Kyustendil creates 100% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 94 away

creates per match

Kyustendil
2.09
Septemvri Simitli
0.96

allows per match

Kyustendil
0.81
Septemvri Simitli
1.48

finishing

Kyustendil+0.00on par
Septemvri Simitli+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kyustendil ↓

Septemvri Simitli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Kyustendil or draw
81%
Kyustendil or Septemvri Simitli
77%
Draw or Septemvri Simitli
42%

Winning margin

Kyustendil wins by 2+
33%
Septemvri Simitli wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Kyustendil 1+ goals
83%
Kyustendil 2+ goals
53%
Kyustendil 3+ goals
26%
Septemvri Simitli 1+ goals
59%
Septemvri Simitli 2+ goals
22%
Septemvri Simitli 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Kyustendil (draw refunded)
76%
Septemvri Simitli (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kyustendil at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.81 · 112 matches

Septemvri Simitli away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.48 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kyustendil attack 2.09 + Septemvri Simitli defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.78

Septemvri Simitli attack 0.96 + Kyustendil defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Kyustendil scores more
58%
level
23%
Septemvri Simitli scores more
19%

Kyustendil at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Kyustendil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kyustendil vs Septemvri Simitli

Kyustendil beat Septemvri Simitli 1-0 in Third League - Southwest on November 15, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Osogovo in Kjustendil (Kyustendil).