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Septemvri Simitli vs Hebar II — Third League - Southwest 2018

Septemvri Simitli
Septemvri Simitli
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Hebar II
Hebar II
4/20/2024Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 30Stadion Struma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Septemvri Simitli58%
×Draw25%
Hebar II17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Septemvri Simitli
1.58
Hebar II
0.72

Septemvri Simitli creates 119% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 38 away

creates per match

Septemvri Simitli
1.55
Hebar II
0.55

allows per match

Septemvri Simitli
0.88
Hebar II
1.61

finishing

Septemvri Simitli+0.00on par
Hebar II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Septemvri Simitli ↓

Hebar II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Septemvri Simitli or draw
83%
Septemvri Simitli or Hebar II
75%
Draw or Hebar II
42%

Winning margin

Septemvri Simitli wins by 2+
31%
Hebar II wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Septemvri Simitli 1+ goals
79%
Septemvri Simitli 2+ goals
47%
Septemvri Simitli 3+ goals
21%
Hebar II 1+ goals
51%
Hebar II 2+ goals
16%
Hebar II 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Septemvri Simitli (draw refunded)
77%
Hebar II (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Septemvri Simitli at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.88 · 93 matches

Hebar II away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.61 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Septemvri Simitli attack 1.55 + Hebar II defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.58

Hebar II attack 0.55 + Septemvri Simitli defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Septemvri Simitli scores more
58%
level
25%
Hebar II scores more
17%

Septemvri Simitli at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Septemvri Simitli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Septemvri Simitli vs Hebar II

Septemvri Simitli beat Hebar II 1-0 in Third League - Southwest on April 20, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Struma in Simitli.