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Hebar II vs Septemvri Simitli — Third League - Southwest 2018

Hebar II
Hebar II
FT
0 – 0
Septemvri Simitli
Septemvri Simitli
9/30/2023Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 11Stadion Saraya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Hebar II45%
×Draw26%
Septemvri Simitli30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hebar II
1.50
Septemvri Simitli
1.17

Hebar II creates 28% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 94 away

creates per match

Hebar II
1.51
Septemvri Simitli
0.96

allows per match

Hebar II
1.38
Septemvri Simitli
1.48

finishing

Hebar II+0.00on par
Septemvri Simitli+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hebar II ↓

Septemvri Simitli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Hebar II or draw
70%
Hebar II or Septemvri Simitli
74%
Draw or Septemvri Simitli
55%

Winning margin

Hebar II wins by 2+
22%
Septemvri Simitli wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Hebar II 1+ goals
78%
Hebar II 2+ goals
44%
Hebar II 3+ goals
19%
Septemvri Simitli 1+ goals
69%
Septemvri Simitli 2+ goals
33%
Septemvri Simitli 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Hebar II (draw refunded)
60%
Septemvri Simitli (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hebar II at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.38 · 37 matches

Septemvri Simitli away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.48 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hebar II attack 1.51 + Septemvri Simitli defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.50

Septemvri Simitli attack 0.96 + Hebar II defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Hebar II scores more
45%
level
26%
Septemvri Simitli scores more
30%

Hebar II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Hebar II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hebar II vs Septemvri Simitli

Hebar II and Septemvri Simitli drew 0-0 in Third League - Southwest on September 30, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Saraya in Saraya.