Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Septemvri Simitli vs Granit Vladaya — Third League - Southwest 2018

Septemvri Simitli
Septemvri Simitli
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Granit Vladaya
Granit Vladaya
11/6/2022Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 14Stadion Struma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Septemvri Simitli67%
×Draw20%
Granit Vladaya13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Septemvri Simitli
2.09
Granit Vladaya
0.81

Septemvri Simitli creates 158% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 70 away

creates per match

Septemvri Simitli
1.55
Granit Vladaya
0.74

allows per match

Septemvri Simitli
0.88
Granit Vladaya
2.63

finishing

Septemvri Simitli+0.00on par
Granit Vladaya+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Septemvri Simitli ↓

Granit Vladaya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Septemvri Simitli or draw
87%
Septemvri Simitli or Granit Vladaya
80%
Draw or Granit Vladaya
33%

Winning margin

Septemvri Simitli wins by 2+
42%
Granit Vladaya wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Septemvri Simitli 1+ goals
88%
Septemvri Simitli 2+ goals
62%
Septemvri Simitli 3+ goals
34%
Granit Vladaya 1+ goals
56%
Granit Vladaya 2+ goals
19%
Granit Vladaya 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Septemvri Simitli (draw refunded)
83%
Granit Vladaya (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Septemvri Simitli at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.88 · 93 matches

Granit Vladaya away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.63 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Septemvri Simitli attack 1.55 + Granit Vladaya defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 2.09

Granit Vladaya attack 0.74 + Septemvri Simitli defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Septemvri Simitli scores more
67%
level
20%
Granit Vladaya scores more
13%

Septemvri Simitli at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Septemvri Simitli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Septemvri Simitli vs Granit Vladaya

Septemvri Simitli and Granit Vladaya drew 0-0 in Third League - Southwest on November 6, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Struma in Simitli.