Granit Vladaya 1–2 Septemvri Simitli

Granit Vladaya

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Septemvri Simitli

11/9/2024

Third League - Southwest · Southwest - 17Stadion Vladaia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Granit Vladaya38%

×Draw27%

Septemvri Simitli36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Granit VladayaExpected goals in this matchSeptemvri Simitli

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.27

Granit Vladaya

1.31

Septemvri Simitli

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 70 home / 94 away

1.14

creates per match

0.96

1.59

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Granit Vladaya

1.14

Septemvri Simitli

0.96

allows per match

Granit Vladaya

1.59

Septemvri Simitli

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Granit Vladaya+0.00on par

Septemvri Simitli+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Granit Vladaya ↓

Septemvri Simitli →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Granit Vladaya or draw

64%

Granit Vladaya or Septemvri Simitli

73%

Draw or Septemvri Simitli

62%

Winning margin

Granit Vladaya wins by 2+

17%

Septemvri Simitli wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Granit Vladaya 1+ goals

73%

Granit Vladaya 2+ goals

38%

Granit Vladaya 3+ goals

14%

Septemvri Simitli 1+ goals

72%

Septemvri Simitli 2+ goals

36%

Septemvri Simitli 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Granit Vladaya (draw refunded)

51%

Septemvri Simitli (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Granit Vladaya at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.59 · 70 matches

Septemvri Simitli away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.48 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Granit Vladaya attack 1.14 + Septemvri Simitli defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.31

Septemvri Simitli attack 0.96 + Granit Vladaya defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Granit Vladaya scores more

38%

level

27%

Septemvri Simitli scores more

36%

Granit Vladaya at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Granit Vladaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff