Septemvri Simitli 3–0 Dobrudzha: Result & Stats

Septemvri Simitli

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Dobrudzha

H. Ivanov 61'

D. Gogov 33', 23' (pen)

5/21/2021

Second League · Round 34Stadion Struma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Septemvri Simitli44%

×Draw26%

Dobrudzha30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Septemvri SimitliExpected goals in this matchDobrudzha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.15

Septemvri Simitli

1.46

Dobrudzha

1.15

Septemvri Simitli creates 27% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 101 away

1.53

creates per match

0.89

1.41

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Septemvri Simitli

1.53

Dobrudzha

0.89

allows per match

Septemvri Simitli

1.41

Dobrudzha

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Septemvri Simitli+0.00on par

Dobrudzha+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Septemvri Simitli ↓

Dobrudzha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Septemvri Simitli or draw

70%

Septemvri Simitli or Dobrudzha

74%

Draw or Dobrudzha

56%

Winning margin

Septemvri Simitli wins by 2+

22%

Dobrudzha wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Septemvri Simitli 1+ goals

77%

Septemvri Simitli 2+ goals

43%

Septemvri Simitli 3+ goals

18%

Dobrudzha 1+ goals

68%

Dobrudzha 2+ goals

32%

Dobrudzha 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Septemvri Simitli (draw refunded)

60%

Dobrudzha (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Septemvri Simitli at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.41 · 32 matches

Dobrudzha away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.40 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Septemvri Simitli attack 1.53 + Dobrudzha defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.46

Dobrudzha attack 0.89 + Septemvri Simitli defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Septemvri Simitli scores more

44%

level

26%

Dobrudzha scores more

30%

Septemvri Simitli at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Septemvri Simitli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

D. GogovPenalty

33'

D. Gogov

40'

M. Maksimov← T. Radev

61'

H. Ivanov

62'

N. Orozov← K. Grozdanov

79'

D. Taylor← Y. Petrov

79'

K. Mutavdzhiyski← D. Gogov

80'

S. Enev← M. Pushkarov

86'

A. Ademov

Septemvri

Dobrudzha

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: A. Bachev

62'▲N. Orozov←▼K. Grozdanov

79'▲D. Taylor←▼Y. Petrov

79'▲K. Mutavdzhiyski←▼D. Gogov

Septemvri Simitli substitutes

OrozovTaylorMutavdzhiyskiLuleyskiTaylorMuninStoilkov

Manager: S. Petrov

40'▲M. Maksimov←▼T. Radev

80'▲S. Enev←▼M. Pushkarov

Dobrudzha substitutes

MaksimovEnevIlievTsvetanovMinchev

Second League: Septemvri Simitli 3–0 Dobrudzha

Septemvri Simitli beat Dobrudzha 3-0 in Second League on May 21, 2021.

Goals: D. Gogov (23' pen, 33'), H. Ivanov (61').

The match was played at Stadion Struma in Simitli.

Septemvri Simitli vs Dobrudzha — Second League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Second League: Septemvri Simitli 3–0 Dobrudzha