Dobrudzha 3–0 Septemvri Simitli: Result & Stats

Dobrudzha

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Septemvri Simitli

I. Lazarov 47'

S. Mitev 42'

D. Stanchev 10'

5/4/2022

Second League · Round 35Stadion Druzhba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Dobrudzha58%

×Draw24%

Septemvri Simitli18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DobrudzhaExpected goals in this matchSeptemvri Simitli

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

0.82

Dobrudzha

1.69

Septemvri Simitli

0.82

Dobrudzha creates 106% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 34 away

1.43

creates per match

0.76

0.89

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Dobrudzha

1.43

Septemvri Simitli

0.76

allows per match

Dobrudzha

0.89

Septemvri Simitli

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dobrudzha+0.00on par

Septemvri Simitli+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dobrudzha ↓

Septemvri Simitli →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Dobrudzha or draw

82%

Dobrudzha or Septemvri Simitli

76%

Draw or Septemvri Simitli

42%

Winning margin

Dobrudzha wins by 2+

32%

Septemvri Simitli wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Dobrudzha 1+ goals

82%

Dobrudzha 2+ goals

50%

Dobrudzha 3+ goals

24%

Septemvri Simitli 1+ goals

56%

Septemvri Simitli 2+ goals

20%

Septemvri Simitli 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Dobrudzha (draw refunded)

76%

Septemvri Simitli (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dobrudzha at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.89 · 100 matches

Septemvri Simitli away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.94 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dobrudzha attack 1.43 + Septemvri Simitli defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.69

Septemvri Simitli attack 0.76 + Dobrudzha defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Dobrudzha scores more

58%

level

24%

Septemvri Simitli scores more

18%

Dobrudzha at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Dobrudzha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

D. Stanchev

33'

G. Bozhilov

42'

S. Mitev

46'

N. Chibout← F. Angelov

47'

52'

61'

68'

75'

L. Graminov← H. Mladenov

82'

M. Maksimov← L. Yordanov

84'

P. Petrov← S. Mitev

85'

N. Galvanelli← S. Kosov

90+2'

Y. Sow← A. Dimitrov

Dobrudzha

Septemvri

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Mitev

▼

Dimitrov

Manager: A. Atanasov

82'▲M. Maksimov←▼L. Yordanov

84'▲P. Petrov←▼S. Mitev

90+2'▲Y. Sow←▼A. Dimitrov

Dobrudzha substitutes

MaksimovPetrovSowDimovCoșcodanKovachevMinchev

Manager: S. Stoimenov

46'▲N. Chibout←▼F. Angelov

68'▲D. Blagov←▼Y. Petrov

75'▲L. Graminov←▼H. Mladenov

85'▲N. Galvanelli←▼S. Kosov

Septemvri Simitli substitutes

ChiboutBlagovGraminovGalvanelliTutaGanev