Septemvri Simitli vs Botev Plovdiv II — Second League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 32+ matches
Septemvri Simitli55%
Botev Plovdiv II21%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Septemvri Simitli creates 80% more chances
Season form · 32 home / 54 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under50
- Over50
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes51
- No49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Septemvri Simitli ↓
Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Septemvri Simitli at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.41 · 32 matches
Botev Plovdiv II away — creates 0.52, concedes 1.93 · 54 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Septemvri Simitli attack 1.53 + Botev Plovdiv II defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.73
Botev Plovdiv II attack 0.52 + Septemvri Simitli defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 0.96
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 55%?"
Septemvri Simitli at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 55% does not mean "Septemvri Simitli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
Tsarsko Selo
Montana
Arda Kardzhali
CSKA 1948
Litex
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Strumska Slava
Lokomotiv Sofia
Pomorie
Chernomorets Balchik
Ludogorets II
Botev Galabovo
Kariana Erden
Pirin Blagoevgrad
Nesebar
DobrudzhaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Septemvri Simitli host Botev Plovdiv II on Wednesday, 18 August 2021 at 16:00. The match is part of the Second League 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Septemvri Simitli vs Botev Plovdiv II
Septemvri Simitli and Botev Plovdiv II drew 2-2 in Second League on August 18, 2021.
Goals: N. Gelin (22'), Y. Kasov (31'), K. Mihaylov (87'), V. Lyubomirov (90+1').
The match was played at Stadion Struma in Simitli.