Botev Plovdiv II 1–1 Septemvri Simitli

Botev Plovdiv II

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Septemvri Simitli

I. Vasilev 69' (pen)

N. Galvanelli 54'

3/6/2022

Second League · Round 25Sporten kompleks Botev 1912

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Botev Plovdiv II51%

×Draw25%

Septemvri Simitli24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Botev Plovdiv IIExpected goals in this matchSeptemvri Simitli

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

0.98

Botev Plovdiv II

1.57

Septemvri Simitli

0.98

Botev Plovdiv II creates 60% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 34 away

1.20

creates per match

0.76

1.20

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Botev Plovdiv II

1.20

Septemvri Simitli

0.76

allows per match

Botev Plovdiv II

1.20

Septemvri Simitli

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Botev Plovdiv II+0.00on par

Septemvri Simitli+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Plovdiv II ↓

Septemvri Simitli →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Botev Plovdiv II or draw

76%

Botev Plovdiv II or Septemvri Simitli

75%

Draw or Septemvri Simitli

49%

Winning margin

Botev Plovdiv II wins by 2+

27%

Septemvri Simitli wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Botev Plovdiv II 1+ goals

79%

Botev Plovdiv II 2+ goals

46%

Botev Plovdiv II 3+ goals

21%

Septemvri Simitli 1+ goals

62%

Septemvri Simitli 2+ goals

26%

Septemvri Simitli 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Botev Plovdiv II (draw refunded)

68%

Septemvri Simitli (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Plovdiv II at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.20 · 55 matches

Septemvri Simitli away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.94 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Plovdiv II attack 1.20 + Septemvri Simitli defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.57

Septemvri Simitli attack 0.76 + Botev Plovdiv II defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Botev Plovdiv II scores more

51%

level

25%

Septemvri Simitli scores more

24%

Botev Plovdiv II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Botev Plovdiv II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

G. Trifonov← S. Hamulic

46'

Y. Kasov← S. Rabotov

49'

54'

N. Galvanelli

56'

B. Danchev← T. Nadi

56'

P. Vutsov← M. Al Badarin

68'

69'

I. VasilevPenalty

74'

H. Mladenov← T. Trayanov

75'

79'

E. Kolev← D. Balinov

81'

K. Nikolov← G. Bozhilov

83'

89'

F. Angelov← J. Da Sylva

89'

V. Zlatinov← N. Chibout

Botev

Septemvri

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: S. Stoyanov

46'▲G. Trifonov←▼S. Hamulic

46'▲Y. Kasov←▼S. Rabotov

56'▲B. Danchev←▼T. Nadi

56'▲P. Vutsov←▼M. Al Badarin

79'▲E. Kolev←▼D. Balinov

Botev Plovdiv II substitutes

TrifonovKasovDanchevVutsovKolevGelinKostadinov

Manager: S. Stoimenov

74'▲H. Mladenov←▼T. Trayanov

81'▲K. Nikolov←▼G. Bozhilov

89'▲F. Angelov←▼J. Da Sylva

89'▲V. Zlatinov←▼N. Chibout

Septemvri Simitli substitutes

MladenovNikolovAngelovZlatinovTutaBlagovKepov

Match Recap: Botev Plovdiv II vs Septemvri Simitli

Botev Plovdiv II and Septemvri Simitli drew 1-1 in Second League on March 6, 2022.

Goals: N. Galvanelli (54'), I. Vasilev (69' pen).

The match was played at Sporten kompleks Botev 1912 in Plovdiv.

Botev Plovdiv II vs Septemvri Simitli — Second League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Botev Plovdiv II vs Septemvri Simitli