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Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe vs SCM Gloria Buzău — Liga I 2018

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
SCM Gloria Buzău
SCM Gloria Buzău
11/22/2024Liga ILiga I · Round 17Arena Sepsi OSK

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe58%
×Draw23%
SCM Gloria Buzău19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
1.83
SCM Gloria Buzău
0.93

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe creates 97% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 21 away

creates per match

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
1.42
SCM Gloria Buzău
0.86

allows per match

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
1.00
SCM Gloria Buzău
2.24

finishing

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe+0.00on par
SCM Gloria Buzău+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe ↓

SCM Gloria Buzău →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe or draw
81%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe or SCM Gloria Buzău
77%
Draw or SCM Gloria Buzău
42%

Winning margin

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe wins by 2+
34%
SCM Gloria Buzău wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 1+ goals
84%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 2+ goals
54%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 3+ goals
28%
SCM Gloria Buzău 1+ goals
61%
SCM Gloria Buzău 2+ goals
24%
SCM Gloria Buzău 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe (draw refunded)
76%
SCM Gloria Buzău (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.00 · 137 matches

SCM Gloria Buzău away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.24 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe attack 1.42 + SCM Gloria Buzău defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.83

SCM Gloria Buzău attack 0.86 + Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe scores more
58%
level
23%
SCM Gloria Buzău scores more
19%

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga I: Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 2–0 SCM Gloria Buzău

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe beat SCM Gloria Buzău 2-0 in Liga I on November 22, 2024.

The match was played at Arena Sepsi OSK in Sfântu Gheorghe.