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SCM Gloria Buzău vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe — Liga I 2018

SCM Gloria Buzău
SCM Gloria Buzău
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
7/22/2024Liga ILiga I · Round 2Stadionul Gloria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

SCM Gloria Buzău29%
×Draw30%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SCM Gloria Buzău
0.93
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
1.17

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe creates 26% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 135 away

creates per match

SCM Gloria Buzău
0.60
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
1.18

allows per match

SCM Gloria Buzău
1.15
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
1.25

finishing

SCM Gloria Buzău+0.00on par
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SCM Gloria Buzău ↓

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

SCM Gloria Buzău or draw
59%
SCM Gloria Buzău or Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
70%
Draw or Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
71%

Winning margin

SCM Gloria Buzău wins by 2+
10%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

SCM Gloria Buzău 1+ goals
61%
SCM Gloria Buzău 2+ goals
24%
SCM Gloria Buzău 3+ goals
7%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 1+ goals
69%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 2+ goals
33%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

SCM Gloria Buzău (draw refunded)
41%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SCM Gloria Buzău at home — creates 0.60, concedes 1.15 · 20 matches

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.25 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SCM Gloria Buzău attack 0.60 + Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.93

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe attack 1.18 + SCM Gloria Buzău defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

SCM Gloria Buzău scores more
29%
level
30%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe scores more
41%

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga I: SCM Gloria Buzău 1–2 Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe beat SCM Gloria Buzău 2-1 in Liga I on July 22, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul Gloria in Buzău.