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Sepidrood Rasht vs Sanat Naft — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Sepidrood Rasht
Sepidrood Rasht
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sanat Naft
Sanat Naft
8/30/2018Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 6Sardar Jangal Stadium (Aqa Sayyed Sharif, Rasht)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sepidrood Rasht30%
×Draw27%
Sanat Naft43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sepidrood Rasht
1.07
Sanat Naft
1.34

Sanat Naft creates 25% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 91 away

creates per match

Sepidrood Rasht
0.93
Sanat Naft
0.69

allows per match

Sepidrood Rasht
2.00
Sanat Naft
1.22

finishing

Sepidrood Rasht+0.00on par
Sanat Naft+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sepidrood Rasht ↓

Sanat Naft →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sepidrood Rasht or draw
57%
Sepidrood Rasht or Sanat Naft
73%
Draw or Sanat Naft
70%

Winning margin

Sepidrood Rasht wins by 2+
11%
Sanat Naft wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Sepidrood Rasht 1+ goals
66%
Sepidrood Rasht 2+ goals
29%
Sepidrood Rasht 3+ goals
9%
Sanat Naft 1+ goals
74%
Sanat Naft 2+ goals
39%
Sanat Naft 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Sepidrood Rasht (draw refunded)
41%
Sanat Naft (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sepidrood Rasht at home — creates 0.93, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

Sanat Naft away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.22 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sepidrood Rasht attack 0.93 + Sanat Naft defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.07

Sanat Naft attack 0.69 + Sepidrood Rasht defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sepidrood Rasht scores more
30%
level
27%
Sanat Naft scores more
43%

Sanat Naft at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sanat Naft will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sepidrood Rasht vs Sanat Naft

Sepidrood Rasht and Sanat Naft drew 0-0 in Persian Gulf Pro League on August 30, 2018.

The match was played at Sardar Jangal Stadium (Aqa Sayyed Sharif, Rasht).