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Sanat Naft vs Sepidrood Rasht — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Sanat Naft
Sanat Naft
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sepidrood Rasht
Sepidrood Rasht
3/8/2019Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 21Takhti Stadium (Abadan)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sanat Naft45%
×Draw29%
Sepidrood Rasht26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sanat Naft
1.27
Sepidrood Rasht
0.88

Sanat Naft creates 44% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 15 away

creates per match

Sanat Naft
1.01
Sepidrood Rasht
0.67

allows per match

Sanat Naft
1.09
Sepidrood Rasht
1.53

finishing

Sanat Naft+0.00on par
Sepidrood Rasht+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sanat Naft ↓

Sepidrood Rasht →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Sanat Naft or draw
74%
Sanat Naft or Sepidrood Rasht
71%
Draw or Sepidrood Rasht
55%

Winning margin

Sanat Naft wins by 2+
21%
Sepidrood Rasht wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sanat Naft 1+ goals
72%
Sanat Naft 2+ goals
36%
Sanat Naft 3+ goals
14%
Sepidrood Rasht 1+ goals
59%
Sepidrood Rasht 2+ goals
22%
Sepidrood Rasht 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Sanat Naft (draw refunded)
64%
Sepidrood Rasht (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sanat Naft at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.09 · 89 matches

Sepidrood Rasht away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sanat Naft attack 1.01 + Sepidrood Rasht defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.27

Sepidrood Rasht attack 0.67 + Sanat Naft defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sanat Naft scores more
45%
level
29%
Sepidrood Rasht scores more
26%

Sanat Naft at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sanat Naft will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persian Gulf Pro League: Sanat Naft 1–1 Sepidrood Rasht

Sanat Naft and Sepidrood Rasht drew 1-1 in Persian Gulf Pro League on March 8, 2019.

The match was played at Takhti Stadium (Abadan).