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Sepidrood Rasht vs Navad Urmia — Azadegan League 2018

Sepidrood Rasht
Sepidrood Rasht
FT
1 – 0
Navad Urmia
Navad Urmia
1/13/2020Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 19Sardar Jangal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sepidrood Rasht39%
×Draw33%
Navad Urmia28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sepidrood Rasht
0.98
Navad Urmia
0.78

Sepidrood Rasht creates 26% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 63 away

creates per match

Sepidrood Rasht
0.88
Navad Urmia
0.38

allows per match

Sepidrood Rasht
1.18
Navad Urmia
1.08

finishing

Sepidrood Rasht+0.00on par
Navad Urmia+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sepidrood Rasht ↓

Navad Urmia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Sepidrood Rasht or draw
72%
Sepidrood Rasht or Navad Urmia
67%
Draw or Navad Urmia
61%

Winning margin

Sepidrood Rasht wins by 2+
15%
Navad Urmia wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sepidrood Rasht 1+ goals
62%
Sepidrood Rasht 2+ goals
26%
Sepidrood Rasht 3+ goals
8%
Navad Urmia 1+ goals
54%
Navad Urmia 2+ goals
18%
Navad Urmia 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Sepidrood Rasht (draw refunded)
58%
Navad Urmia (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sepidrood Rasht at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Navad Urmia away — creates 0.38, concedes 1.08 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sepidrood Rasht attack 0.88 + Navad Urmia defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.98

Navad Urmia attack 0.38 + Sepidrood Rasht defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sepidrood Rasht scores more
39%
level
33%
Navad Urmia scores more
28%

Sepidrood Rasht at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sepidrood Rasht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sepidrood Rasht vs Navad Urmia

Sepidrood Rasht beat Navad Urmia 1-0 in Azadegan League on January 13, 2020.

The match was played at Sardar Jangal Stadium in Aqa Sayyed Sharif, Rasht.