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Navad Urmia vs Sepidrood Rasht — Azadegan League 2018

Navad Urmia
Navad Urmia
FT
1 – 0
Sepidrood Rasht
Sepidrood Rasht
8/22/2019Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 2Takhti Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Navad Urmia47%
×Draw30%
Sepidrood Rasht22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Navad Urmia
1.21
Sepidrood Rasht
0.73

Navad Urmia creates 66% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 17 away

creates per match

Navad Urmia
0.82
Sepidrood Rasht
0.59

allows per match

Navad Urmia
0.88
Sepidrood Rasht
1.59

finishing

Navad Urmia+0.00on par
Sepidrood Rasht+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Navad Urmia ↓

Sepidrood Rasht →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Navad Urmia or draw
78%
Navad Urmia or Sepidrood Rasht
70%
Draw or Sepidrood Rasht
53%

Winning margin

Navad Urmia wins by 2+
21%
Sepidrood Rasht wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Navad Urmia 1+ goals
70%
Navad Urmia 2+ goals
34%
Navad Urmia 3+ goals
12%
Sepidrood Rasht 1+ goals
52%
Sepidrood Rasht 2+ goals
17%
Sepidrood Rasht 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Navad Urmia (draw refunded)
68%
Sepidrood Rasht (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Navad Urmia at home — creates 0.82, concedes 0.88 · 65 matches

Sepidrood Rasht away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Navad Urmia attack 0.82 + Sepidrood Rasht defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.21

Sepidrood Rasht attack 0.59 + Navad Urmia defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Navad Urmia scores more
47%
level
30%
Sepidrood Rasht scores more
22%

Navad Urmia at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Navad Urmia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Navad Urmia 1–0 Sepidrood Rasht

Navad Urmia beat Sepidrood Rasht 1-0 in Azadegan League on August 22, 2019.

The match was played at Takhti Sports Complex in Urmia.