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Sepidrood Rasht vs Esteghlal FC — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Sepidrood Rasht
Sepidrood Rasht
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Esteghlal FC
Esteghlal FC
12/7/2018Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 15Sardar Jangal Stadium (Aqa Sayyed Sharif, Rasht)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sepidrood Rasht19%
×Draw24%
Esteghlal FC57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sepidrood Rasht
0.84
Esteghlal FC
1.65

Esteghlal FC creates 96% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 116 away

creates per match

Sepidrood Rasht
0.93
Esteghlal FC
1.30

allows per match

Sepidrood Rasht
2.00
Esteghlal FC
0.75

finishing

Sepidrood Rasht+0.00on par
Esteghlal FC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sepidrood Rasht ↓

Esteghlal FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–114%
0–211%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sepidrood Rasht or draw
43%
Sepidrood Rasht or Esteghlal FC
76%
Draw or Esteghlal FC
81%

Winning margin

Sepidrood Rasht wins by 2+
6%
Esteghlal FC wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Sepidrood Rasht 1+ goals
57%
Sepidrood Rasht 2+ goals
21%
Sepidrood Rasht 3+ goals
5%
Esteghlal FC 1+ goals
81%
Esteghlal FC 2+ goals
49%
Esteghlal FC 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Sepidrood Rasht (draw refunded)
25%
Esteghlal FC (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sepidrood Rasht at home — creates 0.93, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

Esteghlal FC away — creates 1.30, concedes 0.75 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sepidrood Rasht attack 0.93 + Esteghlal FC defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.84

Esteghlal FC attack 1.30 + Sepidrood Rasht defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Sepidrood Rasht scores more
19%
level
24%
Esteghlal FC scores more
57%

Esteghlal FC at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Esteghlal FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sepidrood Rasht vs Esteghlal FC

Esteghlal FC beat Sepidrood Rasht 5-0 in Persian Gulf Pro League on December 7, 2018.

The match was played at Sardar Jangal Stadium (Aqa Sayyed Sharif, Rasht).