Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Esteghlal FC vs Sepidrood Rasht — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Esteghlal FC
Esteghlal FC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Sepidrood Rasht
Sepidrood Rasht
5/16/2019Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 30Azadi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Esteghlal FC57%
×Draw26%
Sepidrood Rasht16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esteghlal FC
1.48
Sepidrood Rasht
0.65

Esteghlal FC creates 128% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 15 away

creates per match

Esteghlal FC
1.42
Sepidrood Rasht
0.67

allows per match

Esteghlal FC
0.63
Sepidrood Rasht
1.53

finishing

Esteghlal FC+0.00on par
Sepidrood Rasht+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esteghlal FC ↓

Sepidrood Rasht →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Esteghlal FC or draw
84%
Esteghlal FC or Sepidrood Rasht
74%
Draw or Sepidrood Rasht
43%

Winning margin

Esteghlal FC wins by 2+
30%
Sepidrood Rasht wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Esteghlal FC 1+ goals
77%
Esteghlal FC 2+ goals
43%
Esteghlal FC 3+ goals
19%
Sepidrood Rasht 1+ goals
48%
Sepidrood Rasht 2+ goals
14%
Sepidrood Rasht 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Esteghlal FC (draw refunded)
78%
Sepidrood Rasht (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esteghlal FC at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.63 · 115 matches

Sepidrood Rasht away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esteghlal FC attack 1.42 + Sepidrood Rasht defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.48

Sepidrood Rasht attack 0.67 + Esteghlal FC defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Esteghlal FC scores more
57%
level
26%
Sepidrood Rasht scores more
16%

Esteghlal FC at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Esteghlal FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Esteghlal FC vs Sepidrood Rasht

Esteghlal FC beat Sepidrood Rasht 2-1 in Persian Gulf Pro League on May 16, 2019.

The match was played at Azadi Stadium.