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Sepahan FC vs Pakhtakor — AFC Champions League 2018

Sepahan FC
Sepahan FC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Pakhtakor
Pakhtakor
4/22/2022AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 5King Abdullah Sport City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Sepahan FC50%
×Draw26%
Pakhtakor24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sepahan FC
1.48
Pakhtakor
0.94

Sepahan FC creates 57% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 23 away

creates per match

Sepahan FC
1.60
Pakhtakor
0.78

allows per match

Sepahan FC
1.10
Pakhtakor
1.35

finishing

Sepahan FC+0.00on par
Pakhtakor+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sepahan FC ↓

Pakhtakor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sepahan FC or draw
76%
Sepahan FC or Pakhtakor
74%
Draw or Pakhtakor
50%

Winning margin

Sepahan FC wins by 2+
25%
Pakhtakor wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sepahan FC 1+ goals
77%
Sepahan FC 2+ goals
43%
Sepahan FC 3+ goals
19%
Pakhtakor 1+ goals
61%
Pakhtakor 2+ goals
24%
Pakhtakor 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sepahan FC (draw refunded)
67%
Pakhtakor (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sepahan FC at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

Pakhtakor away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.35 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sepahan FC attack 1.60 + Pakhtakor defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.48

Pakhtakor attack 0.78 + Sepahan FC defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sepahan FC scores more
50%
level
26%
Pakhtakor scores more
24%

Sepahan FC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sepahan FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Champions League: Sepahan FC 2–1 Pakhtakor

Sepahan FC beat Pakhtakor 2-1 in AFC Champions League on April 22, 2022.

The match was played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium in Buraidah.