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Pakhtakor vs Sepahan FC — AFC Champions League 2018

Pakhtakor
Pakhtakor
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Sepahan FC
Sepahan FC
4/7/2022AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 1King Abdullah Sport City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Pakhtakor49%
×Draw22%
Sepahan FC29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pakhtakor
1.97
Sepahan FC
1.46

Pakhtakor creates 35% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 12 away

creates per match

Pakhtakor
1.52
Sepahan FC
1.50

allows per match

Pakhtakor
1.43
Sepahan FC
2.42

finishing

Pakhtakor+0.00on par
Sepahan FC+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pakhtakor ↓

Sepahan FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Pakhtakor or draw
71%
Pakhtakor or Sepahan FC
78%
Draw or Sepahan FC
51%

Winning margin

Pakhtakor wins by 2+
28%
Sepahan FC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Pakhtakor 1+ goals
86%
Pakhtakor 2+ goals
58%
Pakhtakor 3+ goals
31%
Sepahan FC 1+ goals
77%
Sepahan FC 2+ goals
43%
Sepahan FC 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Pakhtakor (draw refunded)
63%
Sepahan FC (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pakhtakor at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.43 · 21 matches

Sepahan FC away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.42 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pakhtakor attack 1.52 + Sepahan FC defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 1.97

Sepahan FC attack 1.50 + Pakhtakor defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Pakhtakor scores more
49%
level
22%
Sepahan FC scores more
29%

Pakhtakor at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Pakhtakor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pakhtakor vs Sepahan FC

Sepahan FC beat Pakhtakor 3-1 in AFC Champions League on April 7, 2022.

The match was played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium in Buraidah.