Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sepahan FC vs Esteghlal Khuzestan — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Sepahan FC
Sepahan FC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Esteghlal Khuzestan
Esteghlal Khuzestan
3/6/2025Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 22Naghsh-e-Jahan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Sepahan FC60%
×Draw25%
Esteghlal Khuzestan15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sepahan FC
1.57
Esteghlal Khuzestan
0.62

Sepahan FC creates 153% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 56 away

creates per match

Sepahan FC
1.68
Esteghlal Khuzestan
0.63

allows per match

Sepahan FC
0.61
Esteghlal Khuzestan
1.46

finishing

Sepahan FC+0.00on par
Esteghlal Khuzestan+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sepahan FC ↓

Esteghlal Khuzestan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Sepahan FC or draw
85%
Sepahan FC or Esteghlal Khuzestan
75%
Draw or Esteghlal Khuzestan
40%

Winning margin

Sepahan FC wins by 2+
33%
Esteghlal Khuzestan wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Sepahan FC 1+ goals
79%
Sepahan FC 2+ goals
46%
Sepahan FC 3+ goals
21%
Esteghlal Khuzestan 1+ goals
46%
Esteghlal Khuzestan 2+ goals
13%
Esteghlal Khuzestan 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Sepahan FC (draw refunded)
81%
Esteghlal Khuzestan (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sepahan FC at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.61 · 116 matches

Esteghlal Khuzestan away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.46 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sepahan FC attack 1.68 + Esteghlal Khuzestan defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.57

Esteghlal Khuzestan attack 0.63 + Sepahan FC defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Sepahan FC scores more
60%
level
25%
Esteghlal Khuzestan scores more
15%

Sepahan FC at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Sepahan FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persian Gulf Pro League: Sepahan FC 1–1 Esteghlal Khuzestan

Sepahan FC and Esteghlal Khuzestan drew 1-1 in Persian Gulf Pro League on March 6, 2025.

The match was played at Naghsh-e-Jahan Stadium in Isfahan.