Esteghlal Khuzestan 0–1 Sepahan FC: Result & Stats

Esteghlal Khuzestan

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Sepahan FC

10/5/2024

Persian Gulf Pro League · Round 7Ghadir Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Esteghlal Khuzestan26%

×Draw29%

Sepahan FC45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Esteghlal KhuzestanExpected goals in this matchSepahan FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.85

1.23

Esteghlal Khuzestan

0.85

Sepahan FC

1.23

Sepahan FC creates 45% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 115 away

0.89

creates per match

1.38

1.07

allows per match

0.82

creates per match

Esteghlal Khuzestan

0.89

Sepahan FC

1.38

allows per match

Esteghlal Khuzestan

1.07

Sepahan FC

0.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Esteghlal Khuzestan+0.00on par

Sepahan FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esteghlal Khuzestan ↓

Sepahan FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–115%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Esteghlal Khuzestan or draw

55%

Esteghlal Khuzestan or Sepahan FC

71%

Draw or Sepahan FC

74%

Winning margin

Esteghlal Khuzestan wins by 2+

8%

Sepahan FC wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Esteghlal Khuzestan 1+ goals

57%

Esteghlal Khuzestan 2+ goals

21%

Esteghlal Khuzestan 3+ goals

5%

Sepahan FC 1+ goals

71%

Sepahan FC 2+ goals

35%

Sepahan FC 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Esteghlal Khuzestan (draw refunded)

36%

Sepahan FC (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esteghlal Khuzestan at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.07 · 56 matches

Sepahan FC away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.82 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esteghlal Khuzestan attack 0.89 + Sepahan FC defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.85

Sepahan FC attack 1.38 + Esteghlal Khuzestan defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Esteghlal Khuzestan scores more

26%

level

29%

Sepahan FC scores more

45%

Sepahan FC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sepahan FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff