Sepahan FC 1–1 Al Wihdat: Result & Stats | AFC Cup

Sepahan FC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Al Wihdat

S. Nzonzi 63'

Feras Shilbaya 44' (pen)

11/26/2024

AFC Cup · Group Stage - 5Grand Hamad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sepahan FC55%

×Draw22%

Al Wihdat23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sepahan FCExpected goals in this matchAl Wihdat

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.21

Sepahan FC

1.98

Al Wihdat

1.21

Sepahan FC creates 64% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 14 away

2.33

creates per match

1.43

1.00

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Sepahan FC

2.33

Al Wihdat

1.43

allows per match

Sepahan FC

1.00

Al Wihdat

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sepahan FC+0.00on par

Al Wihdat+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sepahan FC ↓

Al Wihdat →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Sepahan FC or draw

77%

Sepahan FC or Al Wihdat

78%

Draw or Al Wihdat

45%

Winning margin

Sepahan FC wins by 2+

32%

Al Wihdat wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Sepahan FC 1+ goals

86%

Sepahan FC 2+ goals

59%

Sepahan FC 3+ goals

31%

Al Wihdat 1+ goals

70%

Al Wihdat 2+ goals

34%

Al Wihdat 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Sepahan FC (draw refunded)

70%

Al Wihdat (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sepahan FC at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Al Wihdat away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sepahan FC attack 2.33 + Al Wihdat defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.98

Al Wihdat attack 1.43 + Sepahan FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Sepahan FC scores more

55%

level

22%

Al Wihdat scores more

23%

Sepahan FC at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Sepahan FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

M. Karimi

Sepahan FC · M

8.3

Match Events

22'

Mahmoud Shawkat

44'

Feras ShilbayaPenalty

45+2'

Aria Yousefi

59'

R. Shekari← B. Dabo

59'

M. Mohebi← A. Yousefi

59'

A. Kamara← K. Rezaei

63'

S. Nzonzi↳ M. Karimi

67'

Ibrahim Sabra← Baha Faisal

68'

M. Afallah← Mahmoud Shawkat

73'

Abdallah Al-Fakhouri

76'

Saleh Hardani

85'

Mohammad Al Mawaly← Mohannad Semreen

90+2'

Amer Jamous

90+2'

Mustafa Eid

90+1'

J. Aghayipour← S. Nzonzi

90'

V. Hanonov← H. Mohammadi

90+4'

Shoqi Al Quz'a← Amer Jamous

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SepahanAl

Overview

82%Possession18%

22Total Shots3

13Corners2

8Fouls15

Shots

22Total Shots3

8On Target3

6Off Target0

8Blocked0

13Inside Box2

9Outside Box1

Passing

82%Possession18%

710Total Passes156

640Accurate Passes99

90%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

8Fouls15

2Yellow Cards4

4Offsides2