Al Wihdat 2–1 Sepahan FC: Result & Stats | AFC Cup

Al Wihdat

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Sepahan FC

Ibrahim Sabra 55'

O. Gueye 22'

V. Hanonov 9'

9/17/2024

AFC Cup · Group Stage - 1Amman International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Al Wihdat42%

×Draw28%

Sepahan FC30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al WihdatExpected goals in this matchSepahan FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.00

Al Wihdat

1.25

Sepahan FC

1.00

Al Wihdat creates 25% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 5 away

1.29

creates per match

1.00

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Al Wihdat

1.29

Sepahan FC

1.00

allows per match

Al Wihdat

1.00

Sepahan FC

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Wihdat+0.00on par

Sepahan FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Wihdat ↓

Sepahan FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Al Wihdat or draw

70%

Al Wihdat or Sepahan FC

72%

Draw or Sepahan FC

58%

Winning margin

Al Wihdat wins by 2+

19%

Sepahan FC wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Al Wihdat 1+ goals

71%

Al Wihdat 2+ goals

36%

Al Wihdat 3+ goals

13%

Sepahan FC 1+ goals

63%

Sepahan FC 2+ goals

26%

Sepahan FC 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Al Wihdat (draw refunded)

59%

Sepahan FC (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Wihdat at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

Sepahan FC away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Wihdat attack 1.29 + Sepahan FC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.25

Sepahan FC attack 1.00 + Al Wihdat defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Al Wihdat scores more

42%

level

28%

Sepahan FC scores more

30%

Al Wihdat at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Al Wihdat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Mohannad Semreen

Al Wihdat · M

8.3

Match Events

9'

V. Hanonov↳ M. Mohebi

22'

O. Gueye↳ Mohannad Semreen

30'

Seyed Mohammad Karimi

45+1'

Alain Akono

46'

Ibrahim Sabra← A. Akono

47'

Mustafa Eid

55'

Ibrahim Sabra↳ Mohannad Semreen

67'

S. Nzonzi← J. Aghayipour

67'

H. Goudarzi← M. Limouchi

68'

A. Kamara← S. Hardani

68'

R. Asadi← M. Mohebi

74'

M. Afallah← Mohannad Semreen

79'

Shoqi Al Quz'a← Mustafa Kamal

80'

Hadi Mohammadi

84'

Arafat Al-Haj

84'

I. Diarra← Arafat Al Haj

84'

Mohammad Al Mawaly← Mahmoud Shawkat

90+2'

Shoqi Al-Quz'a

90'

Mohammad Abukbeer Ahmad Mahmoud

90+10'

Hadi Mohammadi

90+10'

Hadi Mohammadi

90+2'

M. Daneshgar← V. Hanonov

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlSepahan

Overview

28%Possession72%

7Total Shots15

3Corners5

11Fouls9

Shots

7Total Shots15

4On Target5

3Off Target6

0Blocked4

7Inside Box6

0Outside Box9

Passing

28%Possession72%

255Total Passes666

154Accurate Passes563

60%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls9

5Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

2Offsides1