Sepahan FC 0–0 Al Ain: Result & Stats

Sepahan FC

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Al Ain

9/21/2020

AFC Champions League · Group Stage - 5Jassim Bin Hamad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Sepahan FC49%

×Draw24%

Al Ain26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sepahan FCExpected goals in this matchAl Ain

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.16

Sepahan FC

1.68

Al Ain

1.16

Sepahan FC creates 45% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 24 away

1.60

creates per match

1.21

1.10

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Sepahan FC

1.60

Al Ain

1.21

allows per match

Sepahan FC

1.10

Al Ain

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sepahan FC+0.00on par

Al Ain+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sepahan FC ↓

Al Ain →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Sepahan FC or draw

74%

Sepahan FC or Al Ain

76%

Draw or Al Ain

51%

Winning margin

Sepahan FC wins by 2+

26%

Al Ain wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sepahan FC 1+ goals

81%

Sepahan FC 2+ goals

50%

Sepahan FC 3+ goals

24%

Al Ain 1+ goals

69%

Al Ain 2+ goals

32%

Al Ain 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Sepahan FC (draw refunded)

65%

Al Ain (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sepahan FC at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

Al Ain away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.75 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sepahan FC attack 1.60 + Al Ain defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.68

Al Ain attack 1.21 + Sepahan FC defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sepahan FC scores more

49%

level

24%

Al Ain scores more

26%

Sepahan FC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sepahan FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff