Al Ain 0–4 Sepahan FC: Result & Stats

Al Ain

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Sepahan FC

2/11/2020

AFC Champions League · Group Stage - 1Hazza Bin Zayed Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Al Ain50%

×Draw21%

Sepahan FC29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al AinExpected goals in this matchSepahan FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.59

Al Ain

2.13

Sepahan FC

1.59

Al Ain creates 34% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 12 away

1.85

creates per match

1.50

1.69

allows per match

2.42

creates per match

Al Ain

1.85

Sepahan FC

1.50

allows per match

Al Ain

1.69

Sepahan FC

2.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Ain+0.00on par

Sepahan FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ain ↓

Sepahan FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Al Ain or draw

71%

Al Ain or Sepahan FC

79%

Draw or Sepahan FC

50%

Winning margin

Al Ain wins by 2+

29%

Sepahan FC wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Al Ain 1+ goals

88%

Al Ain 2+ goals

63%

Al Ain 3+ goals

35%

Sepahan FC 1+ goals

80%

Sepahan FC 2+ goals

47%

Sepahan FC 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Al Ain (draw refunded)

63%

Sepahan FC (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ain at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.69 · 26 matches

Sepahan FC away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.42 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ain attack 1.85 + Sepahan FC defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.13

Sepahan FC attack 1.50 + Al Ain defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Al Ain scores more

50%

level

21%

Sepahan FC scores more

29%

Al Ain at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Al Ain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff