Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Seongnam FC vs Pocheon — FA Cup 2019

Seongnam FC
Seongnam FCadvanced
AET
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Pocheon
Pocheon
P. Villero 116' (pen)
Rodrigo Angelotti 65'
Hong Seok-Hwan 23'
7/15/2026FA CupFA Cup · Round of 64

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Seongnam FC33%
×Draw28%
Pocheon39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Seongnam FC
1.09
Pocheon
1.22

Pocheon creates 12% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Seongnam FC
0.86
Pocheon
2.00

allows per match

Seongnam FC
0.43
Pocheon
1.33

finishing

Seongnam FC+0.00on par
Pocheon+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seongnam FC ↓

Pocheon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Seongnam FC or draw
61%
Seongnam FC or Pocheon
72%
Draw or Pocheon
67%

Winning margin

Seongnam FC wins by 2+
13%
Pocheon wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Seongnam FC 1+ goals
66%
Seongnam FC 2+ goals
30%
Seongnam FC 3+ goals
10%
Pocheon 1+ goals
70%
Pocheon 2+ goals
34%
Pocheon 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Seongnam FC (draw refunded)
46%
Pocheon (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seongnam FC at home — creates 0.86, concedes 0.43 · 7 matches

Pocheon away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seongnam FC attack 0.86 + Pocheon defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.09

Pocheon attack 2.00 + Seongnam FC defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Seongnam FC scores more
33%
level
28%
Pocheon scores more
39%

Pocheon at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Pocheon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'
Hong Seok-Hwan
65'
Rodrigo Angelotti
116'
P. VilleroPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Seongnam FC vs Pocheon

Seongnam FC and Pocheon drew 1-1 in FA Cup on July 15, 2026.

Goals: Hong Seok-Hwan (23'), Rodrigo Angelotti (65'), P. Villero (116' pen).