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Pocheon vs Seongnam FC — FA Cup 2019

Pocheon
Pocheon
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Seongnam FC
Seongnam FC
3/23/2024FA CupFA Cup · 2nd RoundPocheon Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Pocheon31%
×Draw29%
Seongnam FC40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pocheon
1.00
Seongnam FC
1.17

Seongnam FC creates 17% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Pocheon
1.00
Seongnam FC
1.33

allows per match

Pocheon
1.00
Seongnam FC
1.00

finishing

Pocheon+0.00on par
Seongnam FC+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pocheon ↓

Seongnam FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Pocheon or draw
60%
Pocheon or Seongnam FC
71%
Draw or Seongnam FC
69%

Winning margin

Pocheon wins by 2+
12%
Seongnam FC wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Pocheon 1+ goals
63%
Pocheon 2+ goals
26%
Pocheon 3+ goals
8%
Seongnam FC 1+ goals
69%
Seongnam FC 2+ goals
33%
Seongnam FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Pocheon (draw refunded)
44%
Seongnam FC (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pocheon at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Seongnam FC away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pocheon attack 1.00 + Seongnam FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Seongnam FC attack 1.33 + Pocheon defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Pocheon scores more
31%
level
29%
Seongnam FC scores more
40%

Seongnam FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Seongnam FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pocheon vs Seongnam FC

Seongnam FC beat Pocheon 3-0 in FA Cup on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Pocheon Stadium in Pocheon.