Seongnam FC 1–2 FC Anyang: Result & Stats

Seongnam FC

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

FC Anyang

5/27/2023

K League 2 · Round 15Tancheon Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Seongnam FC37%

×Draw27%

FC Anyang36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Seongnam FCExpected goals in this matchFC Anyang

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.25

Seongnam FC

1.27

FC Anyang

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 81 home / 125 away

1.16

creates per match

1.34

1.17

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Seongnam FC

1.16

FC Anyang

1.34

allows per match

Seongnam FC

1.17

FC Anyang

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Seongnam FC+0.00on par

FC Anyang+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seongnam FC ↓

FC Anyang →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Seongnam FC or draw

64%

Seongnam FC or FC Anyang

73%

Draw or FC Anyang

63%

Winning margin

Seongnam FC wins by 2+

16%

FC Anyang wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Seongnam FC 1+ goals

72%

Seongnam FC 2+ goals

36%

Seongnam FC 3+ goals

14%

FC Anyang 1+ goals

71%

FC Anyang 2+ goals

36%

FC Anyang 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Seongnam FC (draw refunded)

51%

FC Anyang (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seongnam FC at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.17 · 81 matches

FC Anyang away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.38 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seongnam FC attack 1.16 + FC Anyang defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.27

FC Anyang attack 1.34 + Seongnam FC defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Seongnam FC scores more

37%

level

27%

FC Anyang scores more

36%

Seongnam FC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Seongnam FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff