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Sényő Carnifex vs REAC — NB III - Northeast 2019

Sényő Carnifex
Sényő Carnifex
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
REAC
REAC
8/30/2023NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Northeast - 5Sényői Focipálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sényő Carnifex62%
×Draw19%
REAC19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sényő Carnifex
2.29
REAC
1.18

Sényő Carnifex creates 94% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 15 away

creates per match

Sényő Carnifex
1.79
REAC
0.80

allows per match

Sényő Carnifex
1.56
REAC
2.80

finishing

Sényő Carnifex+0.00on par
REAC+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sényő Carnifex ↓

REAC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Sényő Carnifex or draw
81%
Sényő Carnifex or REAC
81%
Draw or REAC
38%

Winning margin

Sényő Carnifex wins by 2+
40%
REAC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Sényő Carnifex 1+ goals
90%
Sényő Carnifex 2+ goals
66%
Sényő Carnifex 3+ goals
40%
REAC 1+ goals
69%
REAC 2+ goals
33%
REAC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sényő Carnifex (draw refunded)
77%
REAC (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sényő Carnifex at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.56 · 111 matches

REAC away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sényő Carnifex attack 1.79 + REAC defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.29

REAC attack 0.80 + Sényő Carnifex defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Sényő Carnifex scores more
62%
level
19%
REAC scores more
19%

Sényő Carnifex at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Sényő Carnifex will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northeast: Sényő Carnifex 2–4 REAC

REAC beat Sényő Carnifex 4-2 in NB III - Northeast on August 30, 2023.

The match was played at Sényői Focipálya in Sényő.