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REAC vs Sényő Carnifex — NB III - Northeast 2019

REAC
REAC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sényő Carnifex
Sényő Carnifex
3/17/2024NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Northeast - 20Budai II László Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

REAC43%
×Draw23%
Sényő Carnifex34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

REAC
1.77
Sényő Carnifex
1.55

REAC creates 14% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 110 away

creates per match

REAC
1.47
Sényő Carnifex
1.30

allows per match

REAC
1.80
Sényő Carnifex
2.07

finishing

REAC+0.00on par
Sényő Carnifex+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

REAC ↓

Sényő Carnifex →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

REAC or draw
66%
REAC or Sényő Carnifex
77%
Draw or Sényő Carnifex
57%

Winning margin

REAC wins by 2+
23%
Sényő Carnifex wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

REAC 1+ goals
83%
REAC 2+ goals
53%
REAC 3+ goals
26%
Sényő Carnifex 1+ goals
79%
Sényő Carnifex 2+ goals
46%
Sényő Carnifex 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

REAC (draw refunded)
56%
Sényő Carnifex (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

REAC at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

Sényő Carnifex away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.07 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

REAC attack 1.47 + Sényő Carnifex defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.77

Sényő Carnifex attack 1.30 + REAC defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

REAC scores more
43%
level
23%
Sényő Carnifex scores more
34%

REAC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "REAC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northeast: REAC 1–1 Sényő Carnifex

REAC and Sényő Carnifex drew 1-1 in NB III - Northeast on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Budai II László Stadion in Budapest.