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Sényő Carnifex vs Kisvárda II — NB III - Northeast 2019

Sényő Carnifex
Sényő Carnifex
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Kisvárda II
Kisvárda II
3/24/2024NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Northeast - 21Sényői Focipálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Sényő Carnifex37%
×Draw24%
Kisvárda II38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sényő Carnifex
1.48
Kisvárda II
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 111 home / 102 away

creates per match

Sényő Carnifex
1.79
Kisvárda II
1.44

allows per match

Sényő Carnifex
1.56
Kisvárda II
1.17

finishing

Sényő Carnifex+0.00on par
Kisvárda II+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sényő Carnifex ↓

Kisvárda II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Sényő Carnifex or draw
62%
Sényő Carnifex or Kisvárda II
76%
Draw or Kisvárda II
63%

Winning margin

Sényő Carnifex wins by 2+
18%
Kisvárda II wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Sényő Carnifex 1+ goals
77%
Sényő Carnifex 2+ goals
43%
Sényő Carnifex 3+ goals
19%
Kisvárda II 1+ goals
78%
Kisvárda II 2+ goals
44%
Kisvárda II 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Sényő Carnifex (draw refunded)
49%
Kisvárda II (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sényő Carnifex at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.56 · 111 matches

Kisvárda II away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.17 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sényő Carnifex attack 1.79 + Kisvárda II defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.48

Kisvárda II attack 1.44 + Sényő Carnifex defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sényő Carnifex scores more
37%
level
24%
Kisvárda II scores more
38%

Kisvárda II at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Kisvárda II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sényő Carnifex vs Kisvárda II

Kisvárda II beat Sényő Carnifex 3-1 in NB III - Northeast on March 24, 2024.

The match was played at Sényői Focipálya in Sényő.