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Kisvárda II vs Sényő Carnifex — NB III - Northeast 2019

Kisvárda II
Kisvárda II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Sényő Carnifex
Sényő Carnifex
9/29/2024NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Northeast - 9Várkerti Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Kisvárda II55%
×Draw22%
Sényő Carnifex23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kisvárda II
1.93
Sényő Carnifex
1.18

Kisvárda II creates 64% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 110 away

creates per match

Kisvárda II
1.79
Sényő Carnifex
1.30

allows per match

Kisvárda II
1.05
Sényő Carnifex
2.07

finishing

Kisvárda II+0.00on par
Sényő Carnifex+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kisvárda II ↓

Sényő Carnifex →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Kisvárda II or draw
77%
Kisvárda II or Sényő Carnifex
78%
Draw or Sényő Carnifex
45%

Winning margin

Kisvárda II wins by 2+
32%
Sényő Carnifex wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Kisvárda II 1+ goals
85%
Kisvárda II 2+ goals
57%
Kisvárda II 3+ goals
30%
Sényő Carnifex 1+ goals
69%
Sényő Carnifex 2+ goals
33%
Sényő Carnifex 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Kisvárda II (draw refunded)
70%
Sényő Carnifex (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kisvárda II at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.05 · 102 matches

Sényő Carnifex away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.07 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kisvárda II attack 1.79 + Sényő Carnifex defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.93

Sényő Carnifex attack 1.30 + Kisvárda II defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Kisvárda II scores more
55%
level
22%
Sényő Carnifex scores more
23%

Kisvárda II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Kisvárda II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kisvárda II vs Sényő Carnifex

Kisvárda II beat Sényő Carnifex 2-0 in NB III - Northeast on September 29, 2024.

The match was played at Várkerti Stadion in Kisvárda.